Across all working ages a small proportion of people who go on to long-term absence make up the majority of the costs associated with absence from the workplace. However, and particularly for those with MSK pain, there is currently no way of predicting which employees will return to work quickly without additional vocational advice and support, which employees will require this support and what levels of support are most appropriate. Consequently there is no way of ensuring the right individuals are directed towards the right services to support their occupational health needs.

There is a growing evidence base around stratified care approaches to delivering healthcare, but this approach has not yet been developed in occupational healthcare to test whether stratified care according to prognosis (estimated risk of poor outcome- defined as duration of work absence) can be successful in reducing this work absence.